Late last month, an entrepreneur and blogger named Zach Kanter wrote a thought-provoking post about a future where autonomous cars become the norm by 2025. This, of course, leads to improved safety, a cleaner environment and cheaper transportation for all. The article made its way across the internet. We first saw it on Business Insider. After reading this article, the employees of Velvet Cartel all had some pretty big questions. Here is our B2BATX expansion of Zach Kanter's future with autonomous cars.
How we think it will unfold
Autonomous cars will be pushed out by 2025 and bought up by ride sharing services and wealthy individuals.
The fallout (it happens pretty quickly)
This change will conflict with whatever regulations have been placed on ride sharing services between now and then. There will be a temporary hold on the use of these vehicles by private ride sharing services until the end of a series of lengthy revisions of regulations. With the threat of losing 99% of business, new car insurance policies will be developed by car insurance agencies for this type of car--those will be pricey. If Uber is still around, it will go bankrupt due to very expensive insurance policies on unusable cars.
Through the hardships, autonomous cars will continue to gain popularity among wealthy individuals for their obvious benefits regarding the environment, safety and productivity. This will make traditional car dealerships nervous. I will buy a brand new, gas-fueled car, for much less than the price of an autonomous car. I will continue to pay for registration, inspection, insurance, parking and fuel. So will an owner of an autonomous car. With more affordable gas-fueled cars, in addition to new autonomous cars, there will be more traffic in Austin, Tx upon the arrival of the autonomous car.
This shift in the way we get around also has a huge potential to change where we go. When you're paying for every ride, will it limit your travel? We predict that by the end of the autonomous car change-over, there will be a much larger gap in wealth distribution.
Frankly, as convenient as it sounds to replace all of our gas-guzzlers with eco-friendly, self-driving machines, the oil industry isn't just going to pack up and go home. Neither are car insurance companies. If autonomous cars did indeed replace gas-fueled automobiles and were no longer owned and maintained by individuals, the number of jobs lost would be crippling. Every business that relies on car ownership would die. Most likely, those who hold wealth in these big industries will begin to move that wealth to the autonomous automobile business when the autonomous automobiles start threatening their wealth. It's all about where the money is. Are you comfortable with that?
Our view of the future
After a long and bloody war between the power of petroleum and a new, quickly adapting fleet of technology, we will see a lot of the wonderful things Zach talks about in his article. We predict it's going to take longer than 10 years, but we salute any entrepreneur who dares to dream of such a bright future.